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      "title_narrative":["Harnessing 'citizen science' to reinforce resilience to environmental disasters:creating an evidence base and community of practice"],
      "description_narrative":["'Citizen science', or the participation of 'non-specialists' in the gathering or analysis of scientific data, is playing an increasingly important role in scientific research. It is an excellent way for citizens to contribute to the forecasting and warning of hazards that impact them and could be particularly helpful in low and middle income countries. in these regions, citizen science also has the potential to generate shared understandings of hazardous phenomena, improve communication and  help communities at risk take actions to improve their resilience during and after hazardous events.   From earlier volcano-related research projects we have evidence that working with communities at risk to gather data and make observations of natural phenomena does help them reduce their risk. It also helps both scientists and community members cope with the uncertainty around hazardous phenomena by helping them to devise strategies that minimise impacts on lives and livelihoods. Researchers working on other hazards have also found this to be the case.    There are many challenges in moving from the theory regarding the usefulness of citizen science to the practice of making a project work. What we want to do is (A) understand how we should use 'citizen science' to address these challenges and build resilience to environmental hazards (B) create and nurture an international transdisciplinary community of practice to contribute to future projects (B).    We will involve addressing the following objectives:   (1) learn lessons and synthesise knowledge from previous citizen science programs and existing initiatives; (2)  understand what the barriers to success are with these types of project and try to break them down. We think this means we will have to widen our thinking about citizen science techniques, in new ways. We will incorporate methodologies and techniques from the humanities and we include important lessons  from the theory and best practices in international development. We will try to address tensions between 'bottom-up' or community driven practices and 'top-down' or technocratic approaches to gathering data.    We will also meet these aims and objectives by using a case study-based approach to frame our thinking about how this will work best for the citizens at risk from environmental hazards. Citizens are at the heart of this project and so we will use conversations with communities in three contrasting study sites (Ecuador, the English-speaking Caribbean and Nepal)  to inform our synthesis and critical analysis of the challenges encountered in country.  To achieve these aims we have brought together a group of researchers across all relevant fields, and will use our research to create a new community of practice. Each investigator will act as a 'champion' for their specialism to quickly draw together a grouping of experts to attend an initial workshop and we will use the discussion there to inform a synthesis of relevant initiatives and existing evidence.  That synthesis will be used to critically reflect on the barriers to success. During this, we will address the tensions between participatory approaches to development focussed on the communities and their empowerment and engagement and more traditional scientific methods driven by the need for knowledge and data coming from the scientists. We will also work to understand the contribution that narratives and narrative analysis bring to the overall goals of 'citizen science' initiatives, and how they might help to equalise relationships within a project.   We'll produce an analysis of what might help projects in the future successfully use citizen science to empower communities to deal with natural hazards. We will also increase everyone's knowledge of this field. We will share this analysis with the communities where we work and have designed our case studies to be used by initiatives already in place to increase community resilience in those regions.","The Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) supports cutting-edge research to address challenges faced by developing countries. The fund addresses the UN sustainable development goals. It aims to maximise the impact of research and innovation to improve lives and opportunity in the developing world."],
      "participating_org_ref":["GB-GOV-13","GB-GOV-NERC-12345","GB-GOV-NERC-12345"],
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      "iati_identifier":"GB-GOV-13-FUND--GCRF-MR_P022081_1",
      "reporting_org_ref":"GB-GOV-13",
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      "reporting_org_narrative":["DEPARTMENT FOR BUSINESS, ENERGY & INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY"],
      "title_narrative":["A mathematical modeling framework for tuberculosis burden estimation and economic evaluation of pharmaceutical interventions"],
      "description_narrative":["Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of disease and death globally. In 2015, WHO estimated there were 9.6 million TB cases and 1.5 TB deaths. Nearly 500,000 of these cases were resistant to two or more of the main drugs used to treat TB. New drugs, and combinations of drugs, are being developed to treat tuberculosis, as are new vaccines that may protect against disease in adults.  Quantifying the burden of TB is fundamental to understanding its global epidemiology and for making appropriate resource allocation decisions. Most estimates of new TB case numbers each year rely strongly on the number of cases reported by countries in that year to WHO. Unfortunately, one in three TB cases are thought to go either undetected or unreported, so the number of cases reported underestimates the number of new cases. While one can correct for this, it is hard to know exactly how much to adjust the reported numbers. Some countries have good systems for recording causes of deaths, which can be used to estimate the number of deaths caused by TB. Increasingly, large and expensive prevalence surveys are being used to estimate the number of people with active disease in a population. These estimates are less subject to bias, but measure a different quantity. Little work has explored the best way of combining these three data sources.  A major goal of this work is to use mathematical transmission models for burden estimation and provide a unified framework for all data. These models yield the number of new cases, deaths, and also the prevalence of disease. They explicitly represent disease transmission and so introduce a dependence between the number of new cases in different years. These models involve parameters evidenced from previous epidemiological work, but must be calibrated to learn from data on TB reports, deaths and prevalence. Calibration means adjusting imperfectly known model parameters in order to match observed model outputs to the data. This process provides a model that may be used to make predictions about burden, but may also teach us something about the underlying processes. Many of the parameters concerning the epidemiology and disease course of TB are quite uncertain, and this uncertainty is rarely represented fully in models needing calibration, but will be done in this project using statistical techniques that also allow comparison of different models' performance.   TB burden estimation and calibration of transmission models are almost always carried out on a country-by-country basis. Many parameters describing disease progression are likely to be similar in different countries, even if their exact values differ for unknown reasons. Hierarchical modelling techniques allow such parameters to be correlated between countries. This can improve precision, particularly for countries with little data, as estimates can be informed by data from neighbouring countries. I will explore these techniques for the transmission model, and also in statistical modelling aiming to account for the observed patterns of drug-resistance. The transmission model will ultimately be extended to include different types of drug resistance.  As new treatments and vaccines emerge, those with responsibility for public health will want to understand the potential impact these new technologies can have in terms of gains in health, and changes in spending. Producing cost-effectiveness and budget impact evidence requires a model that includes transmission, in order to account for indirect benefits accrued by avoiding secondary cases. We will use our model to provide guidance to decision-makers seeking to maximise health gain with limited resources. We will also analyse sources of uncertainty in the model to identify future research that would have most value in increasing the precision of burden estimates and in reducing decision uncertainty around the introduction of new interventions.","The Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) supports cutting-edge research to address challenges faced by developing countries. The fund addresses the UN sustainable development goals. It aims to maximise the impact of research and innovation to improve lives and opportunity in the developing world."],
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      "participating_org_narrative":["DEPARTMENT FOR BUSINESS, ENERGY & INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY","MEDICAL RESEARCH COUNCIL","MEDICAL RESEARCH COUNCIL","UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD"],
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      "title_narrative":["Development and evaluation of system dynamics methods to engage with policy makers on the prevention and control of diabetes in a middle income region"],
      "description_narrative":["Diabetes is a serious and growing problem globally. Evidence suggests diabetes disproportionately affects people in low- and middle-income countries, where 80% of people with diabetes live, both in terms of numbers of people affected as well as outcomes and deaths. Diabetes affects between 10 and 20% of the adult population in the Caribbean region with deaths due to diabetes estimated to be 35% higher than in the neighbouring United States. Not only are prevalence and mortality a large burden but also rates of complications such as lower-limb amputation are also high. Much of the high burden of diabetes can be attributed to major risk factors such as physical inactivity and obesity.  Health systems with limited resources in these developing countries are struggling to meet the growing epidemic. There is a strong political will in the region to tackle diabetes and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In 2007, the Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community put forth the Port of Spain Declaration (POSD) on NCDs, definitively challenging the high burden of these diseases in the region and pledging action through policies to strengthen prevention and treatment.  This laid the groundwork for a global political movement to recognise NCDs on the public health agenda culminating in the United Nations High Level (UNHLM) meeting on NCDs in September 2011.  Both the POSD and UNHLM strongly emphasise the importance of policy measures for reducing NCD risk factors and put forth policies and targets.  However, evidence on how to achieve a reduction in overweight/obesity and physical inactivity and subsequently reducing NCDs at the population level is scarce, particularly in developing countries. While the risk factors and determinants of NCDs like diabetes are well studied and established, research has not been able to conclusively demonstrate real-world interventions that can reduce their popburden or change the course of the epidemic.   Systems science, which combines multiple factors and complex interrelationships, may offer a solution to evaluating and testing policies for diabetes reduction. It does this by explicitly taking into account system behaviour that is non-linear and complex, with feedback loops and time delays. Within systems science, system dynamics modelling is a methodology incorporating input from experts and stakeholders and combining that with quantitative research evidence to produce a map of a system with the ability to simulate outcomes by changing parameters. The approach has been used effectively in a wide variety of fields including engineering, agriculture, energy planning, business dynamics, and health including diabetes. However, few models have been developed for use in middle-income countries.  This study will be the first to explicitly develop a model for diabetes in developing countries, drawing from work successfully conducted by the Centers for Disease Control in the United States and their model for diabetes. The study will apply the rigorous qualitative methods required by interviewing stakeholders, experts and policy makers in the region as well as gathering evidence from research published on risk factors, outcomes, and health system performance for diabetes in the Caribbean. The study will use the developed model to engage stakeholders and policy makers in time for the on going evaluation of the POSD as a tool for effective policy planning. It will also evaluate the utility of this method in the region in engaging policy makers to think in terms of systems and with long time horizons. The results of this development study will be used to build a larger model incorporating economics and costs, which can then be adapted and used in other low- and middle-income countries.","The Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) supports cutting-edge research to address challenges faced by developing countries. The fund addresses the UN sustainable development goals. It aims to maximise the impact of research and innovation to improve lives and opportunity in the developing world."],
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      "title_narrative":["Developing theory and methods for evaluating the impact of community food initiatives on NCD risk, social and economic wellbeing and the environment."],
      "description_narrative":["Chronic non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer are responsible for the vast majority of deaths in all but the poorest low and middle income countries (LMICs). They are particularly rising in LMICs and are higher in many LMICs than in high income countries. A key driver of this health burden is poor quality nutrition, including diets high in energy dense and highly processed foods and low in fruit, vegetables and fibre. There are several factors that may contribute to poor diets, including poor conditions for growing, storing and transporting fruit and vegetables, and a reliance on relatively expensive food imports. In small island developing states (SIDS) the relationship between a reliance on food imports, poor nutrition and a high burden of chronic diseases is particularly apparent.  Community-based agricultural food production initiatives are one possible approach to improving food and nutritional security and to reducing the risk of chronic diseases. They can also help to improve 'food sovereignty' by increasing the ability of populations to influence their own food systems in ways that are sustainable and promote health. Such initiatives may take several forms, but are owned, organised and managed locally, and produce either fresh or minimally processed food for local consumption. While the potential contribution of such initiatives is recognised, there is very little evidence available on what their impacts actually are in terms of health, social well-being, economics or the environment. There is an urgent need for improved evidence on their impacts, and this proposal is concerned with developing and testing methods to contribute towards filling this evidence gap.   The proposal is designed to help establish a transdisciplinary research programme with the conceptual and methodological skills necessary to undertake robust evaluations of community-based food production initiatives in LMICs. The evaluation of the initiatives will include their contribution to promoting health and social wellbeing, their economic and environmental impacts, and their sustainability. The development work proposed here will be undertaken in two contrasting middle income SIDS, St Vincent and the Grenadines and Fiji. Both are actively engaged in promoting local food production for local consumption, and their well-defined geographical boundaries and relatively small size provide ideal settings to undertake development work. However, the overall goal is to develop a framework and methods that are readily adaptable and applicable to other LMIC settings in which nutritional insecurity is a major contributor to the risk of chronic diseases, including many settings in sub-Saharan African, where levels obesity and diabetes are already high and increasing.  In this project we will update and expand existing evidence reviews on community-based food initiatives in LMICs. In the two chosen settings, we will develop and test research methods to investigate the current nutritional adequacy of local diets and the contribution of community-based food production, and find out who is involved in and supports local food production. We also aim to develop methods to estimate the environmental impacts such as on local water use and carbon emissions. Finally, we aim to determine the major challenges and successes in establishing and sustaining selected initiatives, and how barriers to success might be overcome. The findings will enable us to develop an evaluation framework and refine methods to design a programme of work to robustly evaluate and compare community-based food production initiatives in Africa, the Caribbean and Pacific from the perspective of their impacts on chronic disease risk, social and economic well-being and the environment.","The Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) supports cutting-edge research to address challenges faced by developing countries. The fund addresses the UN sustainable development goals. It aims to maximise the impact of research and innovation to improve lives and opportunity in the developing world."],
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      "title_narrative":["GCRF Caribbean Resilience and Recovery Knowledge Network"],
      "description_narrative":["In a region beset by serial disasters, effective recovery from hazardous events is not just a worthy goal it is an imperative. The Caribbean Resilience & Recovery Knowledge Network will support a transformational approach towards post-disaster recovery in the Caribbean, particularly as it responds to the impacts of the 2017 hurricane season that caused $130 billion of losses in the region. A community of researchers, practitioners & policymakers is emerging, but at the moment their response is ad hoc & driven by divergent research or short-term aid goals. This generates locally useful outcomes, that alleviate the worst symptoms from the disasters, however they are collectively less effective at encouraging long term resilience to future events, strengthening ecosystems or reducing long-term vulnerabilities in poor or remote communities. The Caribbean Knowledge Network seeks to remedy this by creating a new culture for responding to & preparing for hazardous events. This is our principle aim. We will do this by joining together diverse researchers, & engaging with practitioners & policymakers from the outset. These groups are all motivated to come together & transform how we approach post-disaster recovery. The researchers (in the Caribbean & the UK) work on wide-ranging topics relevant to long term hazard resilience, connected by their desire to improve recovery from disasters. The practitioners bear responsibility for ensuring the best possible outcomes for communities at risk & face increasing challenges associated with climate change & environmental degradation in the region. The attention of donors & policymakers has been focussed by the recent systemic destruction from the 2017 hurricanes. Thus, the Network is both timely & needed. We have structured a series of mutually beneficial activities to help us achieve our overall aim, & associated objectives. The first of these will be a forensic workshop where we will bring our multiple perspectives to bear to understand what drove & hindered recovery following three key events (the 2017 hurricanes, the Haiti earthquake & long-term recovery following Hurricane Ivan). To reflect the multiple perspectives we are calling these forensic analyses, & this will be a great vehicle for learning from each others expertise & perspectives. After that we will create some scenarios to help test, design & evaluate existing response & recovery plans for multiple types of hazard. We will visit several Caribbean countries to do this, & they will be co-designed with different social groups to ensure relevancy. These will be used to create new principles & strategies in each setting. While we are doing this we will run a series of webinars to discuss challenges highlighted by these two activities. We will make these freely accessible to participants throughout the Caribbean & further afield. The outcomes from all of this work will create our new community who will co-create a manifesto for research to transform recovery & use that to secure further funding. Importantly, however along the way we will also have created some tangible benefits which will ensure the longevity of the grouping & maximise its benefit. These are: (1) forensic analyses on several important disaster events, identifying priority actions & sets of principles; (2) flexible, tailored scenario exercises for local disaster practitioners so they can develop their own new strategies in response to these on four islands (3) the time & momentum to consider how to 'join up' strategies across the islands, critically in collaboration with regional & international agencies. This research is focused on St Vincent & the Grenadines, Dominica, Antigua & Barbuda, Jamaica, Grenada, St Lucia & Belize, all ODA eligible countries  within the Caribbean Community organisation CARICOM. These countries will benefit directly from Network activities & will be the focus of learning & co-production.","The Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) supports cutting-edge research to address challenges faced by developing countries. The fund addresses the UN sustainable development goals. It aims to maximise the impact of research and innovation to improve lives and opportunity in the developing world."],
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